The current geopolitical environment is complex and multifaceted, shaped by shifting alliances, emerging flashpoints, and long standing conflicts.
Below is a summary of the major regions and dynamics for each world region which is certainly not comprehensive, but gives a high level look at some of the larger issues and flashpoints we see today.
North America
United States
Domestic Polarization: The U.S. continues to experience significant political polarization, impacting its foreign policy consistency. The assassination attempt of Trump is a major escalation and will only massively fan the flames of division internally.
Global Leadership: Despite domestic challenges, the U.S. remains a central player in global politics, focusing on countering China’s rise, Russian aggression, and maintaining influence in the Middle East and Europe. The Biden Administration is testing the limits of that currently, however and it remains to be seen what a new administration in 2024 will bring to this arena.
NATO Commitment: The U.S. reinforces its commitment to NATO, especially in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This is at least potentially in jeopardy with another Trump presidency based on his previous statements, but could likely be hyperbole.
Canada
Bilateral Relations: Canada maintains strong relations with the U.S. and is an active NATO member.
Arctic Sovereignty: Increasing focus on Arctic sovereignty due to potential resource exploitation and strategic military importance.
Current Flashpoints
Mexico: The Mexican drug war remains intense, with significant violence between drug cartels and state forces.
Europe
European Union
Unity and Divergence: The EU faces internal challenges with member states like Hungary and Poland over rule-of-law issues and immigration fueled political divides, while showing unity on sanctions against RussiaEnergy Crisis: Dependency on Russian gas has led to an energy crisis, prompting a shift towards renewable energy and alternative suppliers.
United Kingdom
Post-Brexit Adjustments: The UK navigates post-Brexit trade and political challenges, seeking new trade agreements globally.
Defense and Security: Strong focus on bolstering defense ties with the U.S. and other NATO allies.
Russia
Ukraine Invasion: Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine has led to severe economic sanctions and international isolation, however economic sanctions have failed to have the desired effect on the Russian war machine.
Military Modernization: Despite setbacks in Ukraine, Russia continues to invest in military modernization and cyber capabilities.
Ukraine
War and Resistance: Ukraine remains engaged in a defensive war against Russian aggression, receiving substantial Western military and economic support, yet we see that waning. Many expect in a Trump administration for the war to quickly end, and a Biden administration to double down on the defense effort in order to attempt to wear Russia down militarily.
Current Flashpoints
Ukraine: The war in Ukraine remains a significant conflict, with the front lines largely static despite a stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive. This conflict poses a high risk of escalating into a broader confrontation between NATO and Russia, especially as the vast manpower of Russia is likely able to overcome the dwindling western support for the defensive effort.
Middle East
Iran
Nuclear Tensions: Ongoing concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, with stalled negotiations on the JCPOA.
Regional Influence: Iran continues to exert influence through proxy groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon (Hezbollah), and Yemen (Houthis).
Saudi Arabia
Vision 2030: Economic diversification efforts under Vision 2030 continue, with significant investments in non-oil sectors.
Yemen Conflict: The Saudi-led coalition remains involved in the Yemeni civil war, facing criticism for humanitarian impacts.
Israel
Palestinian Conflict: This conflict started as a reactionary (some speculation whether that’s wholly true) offensive due to the terror attack carried out by Hamas last October. Since then, the conflict has spread into skirmishes with the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, with the potential to spread even more.
Regional Normalization: Continued normalization of relations with Arab states (Abraham Accords), though incredibly high tensions with Iranian, Lebanese and Palestinian groups persist.
Internal Politics: Domestic political instability with frequent elections and coalition governments.
Current Flashpoints
Palestine and Israel: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has intensified significantly, with a major escalation following the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza. This conflict has the potential to ignite a broader regional war involving Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran-backed groups in Syria and Iraq, and Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Syria: The Syrian civil war continues, with various factions including ISIS, Kurdish forces, and the Assad regime still in conflict
Iran: The broader Sunni-Shia divide continues to drive regional instability, in addition to the effects of Iran’s nuclear proliferation.
Asia
China
Global Ambitions: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) expands its economic influence globally.
Taiwan Tensions: Increasing military pressure on Taiwan, raising fears of potential conflict.
South China Sea: Continued militarization and territorial claims, causing friction with neighboring countries and the U.S.
India
Strategic Partnerships: Strengthening ties with the U.S. and QUAD members (Japan, Australia) to counterbalance China.
Economic Growth: Focus on economic reforms and technology to sustain growth.
Japan:
Defense Enhancement: Significant increases in defense spending and cooperation with the U.S. and regional allies.
China Relations: Managing a complex relationship with China, balancing economic ties with security concerns.
Current Flashpoints:
Myanmar: A major offensive by ethnic armed groups against the military junta has intensified conflict, complicating the political and humanitarian situation.
Afghanistan: The Taliban’s rule is challenged by ISIS and other insurgent groups, leading to ongoing violence.
Armenia-Azerbaijan: Tensions remain high following Azerbaijan’s offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, which displaced thousands of ethnic Armenians. Border demarcation and other issues continue to be contentious.
Taiwan: Potential for conflict between China and Taiwan, with implications for U.S. and regional security.
South China Sea: Territorial disputes involving China, Southeast Asian nations, and the U.S. military presence.
Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Security Challenges: Ongoing conflicts in regions like the Sahel (e.g., Mali, Burkina Faso) with rising extremist activities.
Economic Development: Efforts towards economic growth and infrastructure development, often in collaboration with China.
North Africa
Political Instability: Continued instability in Libya and sporadic unrest in Algeria and Sudan.
Migration Issues: Migration flows to Europe remain a significant challenge when it comes to diplomacy with those nations where refugees are heading.
Current Flashpoints
Sudan: The war between Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has devastated the country, leading to significant displacement and loss of life. The conflict threatens to destabilize the entire region, including the Sahel, Horn, and Red Sea areas.
Ethiopia: Despite a cessation of hostilities in Tigray, new rebellions in the Amhara and Oromo regions and tensions with Eritrea pose ongoing threats.
Sahel Region: Military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have strained relations with neighboring countries and Western powers. The region faces severe challenges from jihadist groups and political instability.
Latin America
Brazil
Political Landscape: Recent elections reflecting deep political divisions and economic challenges.
Environmental Concerns: International pressure to protect the Amazon rainforest amid deforestation concerns.
Venezuela
Economic Crisis: Severe economic and humanitarian crisis, with ongoing political standoff between Maduro’s government and opposition.
Current Flashpoints:
Colombia and Venezuela: The Colombian conflict, involving various guerrilla groups and government forces, continues to spill over into neighboring Venezuela.
Haiti: Plagued by hyper-violent gangs controlling much of the capital and surrounding areas. A planned international intervention led by Kenya aims to restore order and pave the way for elections, as it has functionally decivilized into anarchy.
Future Potential Flashpoints
Arctic: Increasing geopolitical interest and potential for conflict over resources and strategic routes.
Cyber Warfare: Rising threats of cyber attacks impacting critical infrastructure globally.
Climate Change: Environmental challenges leading to resource scarcity, migration, and potential conflicts.
US & China: Taiwan and the South China Sea pose a significant risk of military conflict. Both nations are preparing for potential escalation despite recent high-level meetings aimed at reducing tensions.
Russia & NATO: Escalation of the Ukraine War extending to engulf NATO and its allies through accidental, direct or massive (nuclear) escalation in Ukraine.
So, the global geopolitical landscape is marked by a combination of traditional power struggles and emerging non-traditional security threats. Major powers continue to navigate alliances and rivalries while regional conflicts and global issues like climate change and cyber security demand increasing attention. The interconnected nature of these dynamics underscores the uncertain nature of the near and middle term future.
That’s where we are today. Many of these threats, probably unsurprising, are massively interconnected. In our opinion, in all likelihood the largest and most imminent threat is a fully militarized and emboldened China working with our other major adversaries.
Further Reading
Top 10 geopolitical developments for 2024 – EY
These are the biggest global risks we face in 2024 and beyond – World Economic Forum
Geopolitical & economic outlook 2024 – Thompson Reuters
Top Geopolitical Risks of 2024 – S&P Global
Top Geopolitical Trends in 2024 – Lazard
