The relations between North Korea and the United States are a strange combination of diplomatic efforts, economic sanctions, military tensions, human rights concerns, and regional dynamics. Despite attempts at engagement, the path to denuclearization and normalization of relations remains fraught with challenges, compounded by North Korea’s alliance and partnership with Russia and China. Let’s examine its capabilities and how those challenge US efforts in the Pacific.
Denuclearization (or lack thereof)
The United States has maintained a firm stance on North Korea’s denuclearization, and the Biden administration has offered to engage with North Korea without preconditions, signaling a willingness to take interim steps toward denuclearization. Despite these overtures, North Korea has consistently rejected these offers, maintaining its nuclear ambitions and continuing to develop its missile capabilities. U.S. efforts have been met with increased missile tests by North Korea, further complicating diplomatic relations.
The nuclear capabilities of North Korea, especially considering the now quite friendly relationship between them and Russia, cannot be underestimated. They have outright said that they “would consider nuclear use as a preemptive response to any perceived threats to the Kim regime.” and their nuclear arsenal is up to 50-70 nuclear weapons that can be deployed as far as 15,000 miles away.
I must admit I thought this was nothing more than a petulant child using stomp rockets to try to fit in with the rest of the world, but I’m shocked at the capabilities that have been developed by North Korea. Of all of the countries examined, North Korea is the most volatile and unpredictable of them all, and seems the most likely to use nuclear weapons, in particular. Biden ultimately expanded the presence in the Pacific as an extension of Obama’s Pacific pivot, which obviously isn’t a surprise, but by pulling South Korea and Japan together in a trilateral agreement, it’s surely made Kim Jong Un furious.
Cyber Threats
When it comes to cyber attacks, there have been many that are high profile and also attributed to North Korea. The Sony hack of 2014, the WannaCry ransomware attack of 2017, countless cryptocurrency hacks and attacks on the SWIFT financial network. North Korea uses these operations to fund its regime and flex its muscles on the world stage. That being said, North Korean cyber activities focus primarily on espionage and financial crimes to fund the Un regime given sanctions, so the threats to US critical infrastructure while certainly not zero is not nearly as high as China or Russia.
TL;DR
Ultimately, North Korea is mercurial and actually dangerous, becoming more dangerous by the day because of its relationship with China and Russia. It shouldn’t be a surprise that as we isolate our greatest enemies more, those enemies grow closer together. That’s one of the primary reasons why sanctions against North Korea aren’t even worse for their economy. China and Russia block them from proceeding in the UN so the US has to coordinate with its Pacific allies to enact functionally the same thing.
North Korea is emerging as a legitimate threat, primarily because of their frankly insane willingness to use their nuclear weapons as a preemptive strike, and the actual development of these capabilities into long range threats. As Russia, China and North Korea remain close over time, that threat will only grow.
Further Reading
Why Is North Korea Turning More Aggressive?
The US Is Raising Tensions With North Korea
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